Research Paper Supervisor : Dr. Sekou Conde
                                                                             Minzhu University of China
                                                                             2006-2007 Academic Year
 
[Abstract] After the 9·11 terrorist attack, Russia, blessed with huge deposits of oil and gas, has newly emerged as an important actor in the international energy market. Russia’s energy has significant influence in EU’s energy security. Russia’s energy, as an especially important content in the relationship of EU and Russia, is an indispensable complement to the shortage of EU’s energy resources as well as a probably dangerous “energy weapon” to EU.
[Key Words] : Russia, Energy ,Hegemony , EU
 
After the 9·11 terrorist attack, Russia, blessed with huge deposits of oil and gas, has newly emerged as an important actor in the international energy market. According to Russia’s official statistics, Russia possesses 13% of the world’s oil reserves, ranking third in the world; and possesses 26.7% of the world's natural gas reserves, ranking first in the world. In 2004, Russia’s output of oil reached 458 million tons, closing to 506 million tons of Saudi Arabia—the biggest oil producer in the world. “Russia is and will probably remain the world’s largest or second largest producer and exporter of oil”[1]. Russia’s output of natural gas reached 630 billion per cubic meters, which accounted for 27% of the whole world’s output and ranked first in the world. Besides domestic consumption, Russia exports large amount of energy resources to many countries, especially to EU. The biggest consumer of Russia’s oil and gas is EU, whose demands accounts for about 60% of Russia’s whole energy exports. After being expanded eastward, EU is more dependent on abroad energy markets than before. Consequently, Russia’s energy is of great significance to Europe’s energy security.
On one hand, since the oil price has soared again and again from the end of last century, the importance of Russia’s energy has become more and more obvious to EU’s energy strategy, which can be seen from the following two aspects.
First, the EU’s energy supplies are highly dependent on foreign countries. Before eastward expansion, EU’s energy consumption accounted for 16% of the whole worlds’. However, only 50% of its energy demands relied on the output of its own; the other 50% relied on imports from foreign countries. After eastward expansion, EU’s energy demands exceeded its supplies more than before. According to the 2002 "Energy Green Paper" of EU, in the following 20 years, EU’s energy demands will increase by 20% - 25%, while its self-outputs will decrease by 20%. In other words, EU will be more and more dependent on the world’s energy market, the percentage of its oil imports will increase from 76% to 90%, and that of its natural gas imports will increase from 40% to nearly 70%. Russia is an important exporting country of oil and gas in the world, whose supplies of oil and gas respectively accounts for 30% and 40% of EU’s market. Therefore, Russia is an important supplier in EU’s energy market. For example, in present France, Italy and Germany, the proportion of gas imports from Russia in their whole gas imports are 30% - 40% respectively; in Finland, Bulgaria and Estonia, this proportion has reached 100%. According to EU’s long-term energy policy, Russia’s natural gas is regarded as an important kind of energy, which will be made more use of in the future, and the proportion of Russia’s gas in EU’s overall energy consumption will increase from nearly 40% in 2000 to 60% above in 2030. Hence, today Russia is a major contributor to the world’s energy market and welfare of the energy importers.
Second, for the security of oil supply, EU has been always trying to change the situation that most of its oil suppliers concentrate in the area of Persian Gulf. The area of Persian Gulf has being an important oil supplier of EU, 22% of EU’s oil supplies are imported from this area. However, the instable politic situation of this area has posed a great threat to EU’s energy security, because political instability has brought on the fluctuation of oil price since the end of last century. EU’s economy is extremely sensitive to the fluctuation of international oil price. It is estimated that, the international oil price rises by 10% each time, the economic growth rate of EU will decline by 0.1%. If EU imports oil not only from Persian Gulf but also from many other countries like Russia, it will diversify its oil supplying countries and lower the risk of overdependence on Persian Gulf. Therefore, Russia is an important choice for EU to strengthen its oil security.
On another hand, EU is worried that dependence on Russia’s energy might turn into dependence on politics ,because Russia has made energy resources as an important means in foreign policy to maintain the role of Russia as a great power. Some experts point out that energy has been a tool by which Putin administration can make some effect on EU. It has been mentioned above that EU is highly dependent on Russia’s energy resources. EU has always been trying to break the monopoly of energy supply in order to protect EU’s energy security from being controlled by other countries. Nevertheless, Russia is very likely to control the exports of Middle Asia’s oil and natural gas. For example, Russia signed the treaties of buying natural gas from both Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in the name of providing more natural gas to EU; however, EU thought that what Russia really wanted to do was to monopolize EU’s natural gas market. According to the routes of Russia’s natural gas pipeline in Middle Asia and Southeast Europe, EU believes that Russia not only has become the biggest supplier of energy, especially in natural gas, but also will soon monopolize the energy exports of the former Soviet Union region. If that happens, energy will turn into a tool through which Russia can compel EU to satisfy its political requirements. In recent years, the relation of Russia and EU tends worse because of EU’ eastward expansion. If EU exerts political pressure on Russia continuously, Russia is very likely to use energy weapons to give a big blow on EU. For example, On January 2006, the dispute on natural gas between Russia and Ukraine made EU’s very nervous about its energy security. Therefore, EU doubts that whether Russia is their reliable supplier of natural gas and other energy resources.
“In the 21st century, Russia’s energy rich make it a major player on the world scene…… Russia today helps solve the problem of domestic energy shortages which plague many countries”[2]. Russia’s energy exports ensure that it is still a major player in international politics. Its decisions on pipeline routes, choice of export markets, are closely followed in foreign capitals and give it considerable political influence. Russia’s energy, as an especially important content in the relationship of EU and Russia, is a dangerous weapon to EU as well as an indispensable complement to the shortage of EU’s energy resources. However, there are some common benefits between EU and Russia after the end of the Cold War, energy is more likely to be a positively political bond between them. Therefore, for avoiding Russia using its energy weapons, EU should build up and develop a good and stable relation with Russia to ensure the importation of energy. EU tries to improve its political relation with Russia by peaceful negotiation and inter-beneficial economical cooperation, in order to change the situation of EU’s unilateral dependent on Russia into a mutual dependence on each other, and lower the risk of highly dependent on Russia’s energy resources.
 
REFERENCES:
1, John D. Grace, “Russian Oil Supply: Performance and Prospects”, Oxford University Press, 2005
2, Shinichiro Tabata, “Dependent on Oil and Gas: Russia’s Integration into the World Economy”, Osamu Ieda Press, 2006
3, Michael Ellman, “Russia's Oil and Natural Gas: Bonanza or Curse”, Anthem Press, 2006
4, Xiaoqing Sun, “Energy Factors in the Present Relationship of EU and Russia”, International Relations, 2/2006
 

[1] John D. Grace , “Russian Oil Supply: Performance and Prospects” , Oxford University Press , 2005 ,P233
[2] Michael Ellman, “Russia's Oil and Natural Gas: Bonanza or Curse”, Anthem Press, 2006, P14

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