Chinese role and influence in Asian and global economy
Name:Liu cui Student ID：s07521
Research paper supervisor:Dr.Seku Conde
Minzu University of China
2007-2008 Academic Year
Abstract:The rapid rise of China as the major Asian country not only actively involved in the process of economic globalization and played an important role in the process of Asian regional integration[①]. My paper expounds China’s re-emergence and tries to answer the so-called "Chinese economic threaten theory ”, by using five tables and figures from comparison of total scale international Commodities markets, direct investment flows and internationalization of RMB issues and so on, scholar drawn the conclusion by analyzing: (1) China is playing a more and more important role in balancing global economy. (2) China plays an irreplaceable position in world commodity markets. ⑶ The industry constitution of China largely influents the international market of raw materials and manufactured goods. ⑷ The influence of Chinese economy in the world economy is important in the Asian region and it is playing a decisive role in the Asian area, but its investment has a limited influences to world’s economy[②].
Key words: China, China's economy, economic status, economic influence, Asian economic integration, global economy
INTRODUCTION
The dominance of the world economy triggered from the industrial revolution in Europe to the United States after the first and second World Wars. In the 21st century, it also shifted to China, South Korea, Japan and India as the center of Asia. Therefore, today in this economic and political changing world, exploring ways to ensure the dominant role of China in the Asian and world economic and political aspects is of far-reaching significance. In my paper, I only discuss Chinese role and influence in Asian and global economy.
⑴ China’s role in the integration process of Asia. In this part I analyzed from re-emergence of China, "Chinese economic threaten theory", Chinese impact and influence to the Asian economic integration.
⑵ Chinese role and influence in global economy. In this part I analyzed from four aspects, they contain from GDP viewing the overall strength of China in the global economic status, viewing China's economic influence on the international market, viewing the influence of China economy from the movement of direct investment, viewing China economic influence from the internationalization of RMB.
⑶ Conclusion
Ⅰ . China's role in the integration process of Asia
(A) re-emergence of China
The world entered the new century there are three basic dynamic states: the focus of population transfer, advanced production methods and the political, social organization of the global proliferation, political situation of the world changed. Three points together, it is indicated that a number of non-Western powers may be emerging as the world superpower, China is second to none。Because, since 1985, China's average annual GDP growth of 9.7 percent. The total GDP in 2003 reached 1 trillion U.S. dollars, ranking second in Asia.
China's reform and opening up and growing economic strength have been concerned by the world. American scholar Paul Bracken publicized “China will become the first in the world?” in May 2002. To China in the past, today and the future were reviewed and analyzed. He reminded people that "500 years ago, as the world's strongest superpower, China dominated the Asian Affairs, today, China's rapid economic growth, demographic structure of the young, China will re-emergence as the world superpower as the competitor of the United States。According to U.S. scholar Madison statistics in his book "200 years of the world economy,"[③] a book of statistics, the total GDP: 1820, China had the highest first in the world; but the most developed Western countries, the United Kingdom ranked fourth in the world, the second and three is India and France. As historical reasons we known, China lagged in the next 100 years. The United States ranked the first in the world total GDP in 1895; China lost Taiwan in the Sino-Japanese War in that time. Japan's total GDP become the second of the world, more than the China was in 1968 that the climax of China "Cultural Revolution".
(B) "Chinese economic threaten theory"
So, how understand and treat "Chinese economic threaten theory" accompanying a re-emergence of China? The whole of the world the faced to rise of a country that china is not the first example in the long process of the world history. However, as China which has a large population rising, it is indeed different from other countries. U.S. economic rise only 3 to 4 million people, Japan has only 1 million people, but China has 1.3 billion people, namely 1.3 billion consumers. The first time of the world faced a rising country with so many population, China has shown enormous energy can not but make subtle changes of mentality of Asian countries, especially China's neighboring countries (especially Japan). Moreover, the rise of China will challenge the traditional position of U.S. in Asia. In order to develop their own economy, China and other countries (especially China's neighboring countries) will be compete on the market and resource development. If the event of a dispute or controversy, it is not indeed inevitable. The key lies in the politicians of the countries how to use wisdom and good sense to leap and rehabilitate so-called “cultural rift” among Asian countries, and resolve and manage the dispute, controversy or imminent the conflict with the framework of the principles in international law and WTO. At present what happened in Japan-China, between China and South Korea about the issue of the controversy and dispute of the seabed resources of the East Sea and Yellow Sea are testing the leaders of the countries.
China's economic growth seems to have become the basis of external expansion policy. However, many of the problems are also constraining the development of China. For example, high cost of the rate of economic growth, a huge gap between eastern and western of Chinese development, sluggish state-owned enterprises and mass unemployment, increasing social instability factors, gap between rich and poor increased, lagging reform of the political system, environmental issues and so on. The excessive demand for energy will also be constrained China's sustained economic development. Only successful resolute these issues, Chinese economy can maintain sustainable growth. But even if China's total GDP is over the United States, it does not mean that China gained the ability to lead the world. Because, China's per capital GDP remains one of the more than 10 points of U.S. by then.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expounded the policy of U.S. to China in a speech at Sophia University when she visited Japan on March 19, 2005. In her speech, Rice said the United States have reason to welcome a confident, peaceful and prosperous China and hoped that China would become a global partnership and China has the ability and willingness increase the capacity so that match with its international responsibility. In her speech Rice praised Chinese responsible and cooperative role in the Korean Peninsula, Afghanistan, South Asia, terrorism and other areas[④].
March 4, 2004, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promised that the rise of China will not hamper any person and will not threaten anyone, nor will expense of any person in Beijing on behalf of the Chinese government and people to the international community[⑤]. China does not seek hegemony whether now or future. In fact, as early as the 1950s, the late Chinese Premier Zhou EnLai posed the famous "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" with India about dealing with international relations behalf of the Chinese government[⑥]. Today and in the future, "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" are still criteria on China's handling of international relations.
(C) Chinese impact and influence to the Asian economic integration
25 years ago, China cautiously and courageously stepped on the long journey of the reform and opening up. After a quarter century, the United Nations Conference on the "2003 World Economic Situation and Prospects," the official pointed out: "Because of the strong demand for goods, China is replacing the United States and Japan to become the engine of promoting Asian economic growth."
Besides efforts to develop its own economy, China participated in and promoted Asia's regional economic cooperation by a very positive and pragmatic attitude. Now Asia appears the "10 +1" and "10 +3" mechanism of free trade zone from China actively advocates and efforts are inseparable. June 5, 2001, China and Russia as the major countries of Europe and the central Asian four countries: Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed the “establishment of declaration on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, advocating good neighborliness, mutual trust, equality and mutual benefit, solidarity and cooperation and common development, making a model of pioneering practice on a for exploring a new type of state relations, a new security relationship, a new regional cooperation. “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” will start with security and political cooperation, gradually extended to the field of economic cooperation。
China's economic development in the entire Asian economic impact is obvious. Currently the world economy mainly depends on the development of the Asia-Pacific region. China has become the most important "economic engine." in Asia-Pacific region. The development of “10 +1” and “10 +3” mechanism reflected to deep between the Chinese market and the Asian economic interdependence. According to world banking industry statistics, [...]
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