Name: Guan Xin Student ID：S07314
Research paper supervisor:Dr.Seku Conde
Minzu University of China
2007-2008 Academic Year
 
Abstract
This article is about the attitude of the mainland take towards Taiwan after the new victory of KMT. Focus on it because Taiwan issue is China’s core national interest, research on this aspect has always been paid great attention. And it is now becoming an urgent question. There must be a series of adjustment on the mainland’s policy after the KMT coming into power. However, the existing research mostly focuses on explanation, lacks in policy efficacy analysis. This thesis attempts to make some recommendations based on change track of preceding policies.
The paper will combine factor analysis and policy recommendation, macro research and micro research. Moreover, in order to write reasonably, I use the quantitative method of poll data, this must have some error because different organization’ subjective factor, etc. But what I need is the trend, not the concrete figure. Besides, looking back history can let us wise, so I review the Mainland’s Taiwan policy during1996-2006 and some historical examples. Moreover, as the proverb says “Two heads are better than one”, quotation and paraphrase can not be absent. Information from books, internet and other person will be fully utilized.
The article is divided into 4 parts, namely, factors which will impact on the mainland’s attitude; argument about the topic; the overall analysis of the efficacy of the mainland’s Taiwan policy during 1996-2006 based on poll data; which is followed by some recommendations based on the preceding analysis.
Furthermore, this thesis will attempt to draw out the sketch of the development track of mainland’s Taiwan policy, and answer such fundamental questions of research on cross-straits relations as how to gain the support of Taiwan people, how to put the economic and cultural factors into play.
Key words: Taiwan, the mainland, attitude, policy, Peaceful reunification.
 
During the half past century, “Taiwan is regarded as a painful continuation of Chinese history. This shallow Strait is the biggest tragedy, the deepest nostalgia of China”.[1] Now, China has chance to change this situation.
March 22nd, 2008, KMT candidate Ma Yingjiu and Xiao Wanchang won the 12th Taiwan leadership election, adding the superiority in the new legislative council. We can say that KMT has firmly grasped the leading power of Taiwan. Next four years, or even a longer time, the Kuomintang and Communist Party have chance to build a unified political atmosphere which is good to both sides. But if they cannot make any progress on the relations, then both two sides will have the disaster. So this new victory of KMT will certainly influence the mainland from many aspects, such as economy, military affairs, technology, tourism, education, culture, politics, and so on. The hottest topic in the near run is surely the relationship of two sides. Most of Chinese people are optimistic towards this, is it right? What attitude should we take towards Taiwan after the new victory of KMT? My essay will draw out some recommendation to these questions.
In order to answer this question, we should first consider some factors which will impact on the mainland’s attitude.
I. Factors which will influence the mainland’s measure
Policy can not be carried out in a vacuum, it is a realistic process. For example, the policies of encouraging investment or fee remission can benefit the industrialist or student, but have no effect on the middle-aged farmers in the south. Therefore, besides the policy itself, we must consider many relevant factors.
1.1. Individual factors
The quality of Taiwan people will impact on the effect of policies that the mainland carries out. For example, investment encouragement or fee remission can benefit the industrialists or students, but only have little effect on other people, such as middle-aged farmers in the south.
Age: Feelings towards the mainland’s policy of People at different stages will be different. Middle-aged people are inclined to maintain the status quo, and older or younger people prone to the unity or independence. The attitudes of younger people are more instable, more possible to change.
Academic level: Those people at low academic level are not so assertive on "unification or independence" issue. People with high academic qualification can accept the information through the media more easily, and people with low academic qualifications are more easily affected by the social direction of the island. Highly educated persons may have better understanding of the reality of two sides, so they inclined to maintain the situation. The lower educated people may receive some media coverage not so objective and impartial, then form bias toward the mainland.
Geographical distribution: The number of people who advocate independence is significantly higher in southern part than the northern part. And the desires of changing the status quo are more intense among south people than the northern region. Agree with political parties are basically same with the political tendencies of geographical distribution. People basically agree with the DPP in southern and KMT or People First Party in northern part. This political agree will affect greatly the spread of policy.
1.2. The situation of Taiwan
Political factors: The political environment of Taiwan is the primary factor affecting the mainland's Taiwan policy. Past several years, the Democratic Progressive Party advocated independence, challenged the limit of peaceful development between Taiwan and the mainland. Voices of unification declined rapidly. Now, KMT has grasped the leading power of Taiwan. Next four years, or even a longer time, the Kuomintang and the Communist Party have chance to build a unified political atmosphere which is good to both sides.
Economic factors: Economy is the prerequisite of peace, the development of trade will promote peace. The economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan will affect political level to a large extent. The period of rapid economic growth in Taiwan had finished. In recent decades, the economic recession of Taiwan and the rapid development of the mainland are in sharp contrast. Taiwan's sluggish economy increases the economic superiority of the mainland in the trade. The mainland can benefit Taiwan people through commercial preferential policies. And on the other hand, Taiwan become depending on the mainland, major industries shift to the mainland. This economic situation of "one up and one down" let the mainland increase the bargaining chip in Taiwan policy
Social and cultural factors: The expansion of the subjective consciousness is also an important factor. Because the difficulty of achieving political or legal independence, those who advocate "Taiwan independence" are trying to pursuer "cultural independence" by changing the national confirming, enhancing the subjective consciousness and other forms. Chen Shuibian has ever admitted "we can not deceive ourselves; we can not deceive others and we can not achieve that".[2]
Emergent factors: Unexpected events, such as "9.21" earthquake, typhoon and other issues, can affect the mainland's adjustment of Taiwan policy. It is our chance to win support of Taiwan people and promote the friendly exchanges between the two sides. It is often twice the result with half the effort to help when the Taiwan compatriots need most. The mainland's attitude and the following action greatly affected the Taiwan compatriots, resolved some discontent. So taking the right strategy in emergencies can obtain good effect.
1.3. International factors
Although the issue of Taiwan is a continuation of the Chinese civil war, it is China's internal affair, but the effect of the mainland's Taiwan policy is surely affected by the international political environment, such as the United states, Japan and other international factors like Southeast Asian countries and the Korean issue. ”Without the Japanese occupation of Taiwan for 50 years, the two sides today will not have such huge barrier today. Without the US's military obstruction and blockade, the separation of Taiwan is possible not to appear, even if appears, it will not extend so far”.[3]
The United states: The United States is a major external factor to cross-strait relation. The relation of China-US involves a lot of interests disputes, therefore, the United States will not give up interfering with the mainland's Taiwan policy. The United States worries about the economic development and expanding influence on Taiwan of China, so any policy which directly good for cross-strait reunification will be objected by the US. Intervention of Taiwan crisis in 1996 is an obvious example. American government sold many arms to Taiwan, the followings are the number of arms selling to Taiwan by government of Clinton: 1.034 billion dollar in 1996, 1.247 billion dollar in 1997, 1.296 billion dollar in 1998”.[4]Although the United States hope to maintain the status quo of Taiwan, and he even does not oppose the independence of Taiwan from the perspective of fundamental interests, As the mainland has drew equal between the independence of Taiwan and the reunification by force., he doesn’t want to be dragged into the predicament . When Taiwan authorities claim “the independence of Taiwan” to stimulate the mainland, the impact of the United States on Taiwan can become a favorable factor towards "anti-independence". For example, the United States’ expression on how to protect Taiwan may directly affect the confidence of Taiwan people on support the independence of Taiwan.
Japan: Because the special relation with Taiwan and [...]

If you want to read the full article, you need to ask for permission from Sekou ( ). If you have the permission, you can login now.